Global Economy Not Heading Into a Recession - IMF’s Lagarde

says the U.S. is not headed for a recession anytime soon.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/investor-fears-about-recession-seem-overdoneimfs-christine-lagarde-says.html



Lets see how they going to twist the story further ...

zerohedge
‏ @zerohedge
49m49 minutes ago

"is the light at the end of the tunnel actually a heavily-subsidised Chinese high-speed train (or hypersonic missile) coming towards us?" - Rabobank

Goldman Warns Of Hit To Economy As Rich Cut Spending Once They See Their Brokerage Statements
Global Debt Tops 244 Trillion Dollars As "Nearly Half The World Lives On Less Than $5.50 A Day"
Hedge Funds Suffer Massive $22.5 Billion In Q4 Outflows
For The First Time Ever, Wall Street Banks Top $100 Billion In Profit


Student Debt Is a Driver of Low Millennial Homeownership Rates - FED


U.S interest payments set to surpass Medicaid in 2020, defense in 2023

USA: Economy is so "strong" it can't sustain 2.25% FED interest rate

Gundlach Sounds The Alarm Over $122 Trillion In Unfunded U.S. Liabilities
Gundlach: Debt-Financed Share Buybacks Turned Stock Market Into High-Risk CDO

I'll have what Lagarde is smoking.

not russia

https://youtu.be/zAlr01DLU2c

Perhaps it's running into something else?

Until yesterday I've only heard about the name BlackRock but now I found some compromized info, what it is. A few thousand employees, a few thousand computers around the world and an algorithm have started to manage global economy.

WTH is in this construction that could eventually go wrong?

Until now I had the picture of an economy as a castle standing on matches and in the near future there will be one match left.





Where is the exit? I want to leave this sickening place.

the federal government with a debt burden of $105 trillion, including unfunded Social Security and Medicare promises. That equates to a $696,000 burden for every federal taxpayer," TIA states.

the Treasury Department doesn't include unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities on the federal balance sheet, these debts are included in TIA’s report.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-15/distressed-nation-each-american-would-owe-700000-eliminate-worsening-debt-situation

In a few years every USAmerican will be a debt millionaire.

...
Interesting, on this page the Washington Post tells me:
This content is currently not available in your region.

Censorship in full swing. Free communication and information may be impossible soon.

NY Fed Announces Third Consecutive Repo Operation On Thursday

Yesterday N.Y. FED TAKES $75B OF TREASURIES, SECURITIES IN REPO OP
Before yesterday $53BN

Liquidity Shortage Getting Worse: Fed's Repo Oversubcribed Even More As Funding Demand Jumps
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1174665851645153280

Slovák wrote:NY Fed Announces Third Consecutive Repo Operation On Thursday

Yesterday N.Y. FED TAKES $75B OF TREASURIES, SECURITIES IN REPO OP
Before yesterday $53BN

Liquidity Shortage Getting Worse: Fed's Repo Oversubcribed Even More As Funding Demand Jumps
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1174665851645153280

Dollar Funding Shortage Accelerates As Both Overnight And Term Repo Oversubscribed
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-term-repo-2x-oversubscribed-banks-brace-quarter-end-funding-shortage

Liquidity Scramble: Fed Announces Overnight Repos Every Day Next Week, Introduces Term Repos
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/liquidity-scramble-fed-announces-overnight-repos-every-day-next-week-introduces-term-repos

today:
Overnight repo submissions: $80.2BN
Term repo submissions: $62BN
Total funding shortfall: $142BN


“Don’t Call It QE”, says JPM about the renewed growth in the Fed's balance sheet
DUDLEY: FED DOESN'T REALLY KNOW HOW MUCH RESERVES BANKS NEED

POWELL: WE WILL REVISIT QUESTION OF WHEN TO GROW BALANCE SHEET

... the fact that this potential reserve shortage is taking place with nearly $1.4 trillion in "excess" reserves in the system


Citi expects reserves to decline by around $100BN on Sept. 30, as Treasury’s cash balance will increase by $50b, the Fed’s RRP facility tends to increase by around $40b, and foreign RRP balances have been rising, with Citi estimating another $10b increase. Meanwhile, on Sept 30, the gross Treasury supply is expected to be $113bn. … concluding that the Fed is likely to transition to permanent open market operations after the October FOMC


Goldman Sachs warning that world stock markets “are about to get wild in October”, states the more accurate word they should have used to describe what is coming would be catastrophic—and is due to one of America’s largest banks so near to collapsing, the Federal Reserve is rushing to keep it afloat with a staggering $1.5 trillion emergency bailout—an emergency bailout, however, the Federal Reserve is spreading out with $75 billion daily payments until 10 October so as not to alarm and place into panic their nation’s citizens—but is now “sowing chaos deep inside the plumbing of the entire US financial system”—most particularly because this bank nearing collapse has yet to be officially named ...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sachs-has-just-issued-ominous-warning-about-stock-market-chaos-october

Russia’s SPFS and China’s CIPS global payment systems rely on gold—and is why both of them have been ditching US Dollar-Federal Reserve Notes as fast as possible—which, in turn, now sees virtually no one in the world wanting to have US Dollars—thus leaving the Americans with no other choice than to buy their own debt—but that their own banks can’t afford, and is why they’re collapsing.

Chinese Firms Dump $40 Billion In Global Assets, Turn Net Seller For First Time In Decades
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinese-firms-dump-40-billion-global-assets-turn-net-seller-first-time-decades

'Vaguely Troubling': BIS Warns Of Financial Disaster Amid $17 Trillion In Negative-Yield Debt
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/vaguely-troubling-bis-warns-financial-disaster-amid-17-trillion-negative-yield-debt

David Rosenberg: Even If The Fed Cuts Rates To 0%, A Recession Will Hit In 12 Months
https://www.shtfplan.com/forecasting/david-rosenberg-even-if-the-fed-cuts-rates-to-0-a-recession-will-hit-in-12-months_09232019


The interest rate business model (capitalism) is dead. Negative interest rates (central banks) killed it, with no replacement in sight.
Banks can no longer earn money w/flat yield curve: maturity transformation business is dead. (banks) borrow money short term & lend long term.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/mish-negative-interest-rates-are-socio-political-poison

Last week’s failure in the US repo market might have had something to do with Deutsche Bank’s disposal of its prime brokerage to BNP, bringing an unwelcome spotlight to the troubled bank and other foreign banks with prime brokerages
Last July, Bloomberg reported that when the BNP deal was first mooted, Deutsche Bank clients were pulling out a billion dollars every day … Deutsche Bank, which may be needing a significant liquidity replacement for fleeing deposits

US bankers to more widely consider their exposure to counterparty risk and risky loans, particularly leveraged loans and their collateralised form in CLOs.

Another potential problem is China, with the Financial Times reporting only eleven days ago that Chinese groups are shedding $40bn in global assets, with a sub-heading that warned US divestments are soaring.

Then there is the unexpected escalation of domestic funding requirements faced by Saudi Arabia in the wake of the attack on her oil refining facilities, almost certainly being covered by the sale of dollar balances in New York.

There has been a reduction in dollar balances by foreign corporations and governments held through correspondent banks (note that in the twelve months to July 2019, there have been net withdrawals of $307.9bn … a reduction in dollar balances by both foreign corporations and governments, contrary to a wide-held belief that in a crisis, foreigners should be scrambling to buy dollars. …

According to the Bank for International Settlements, outstanding collateralised loan obligations are split with approximately $1.2 trillion in US dollars, and $200bn equivalent in euros. The dollar exposure accounts for half of all leveraged loans in the US financial system, so the total size of the US leveraged loan market is more like $2.4 trillion, which compares with the book value of total equity capital for commercial banks in the US of $1.95 trillion. While direct bank exposure to CLOs is estimated at only $250bn, they are bound to have the lion’s share of the rest of the leveraged loan market, giving them a total exposure of up to $1.5 trillion without indirect exposure being taken into account. Most of American banks’ equity capital is therefor at risk.

If it took two months between Libor freezing in December 2007 and Northern Rock being rescued by the UK government and if that timing is replicated today, a new banking crisis will hit in November

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/us-repo-calypse-ghost-failed-banks-returns

Japanese Bond Crash, Margin Call Send Shockwaves Around The Globe

the BOJ had indicated it may even stop buying debt of more than 25 years.
Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) that it was pivoting toward buying more FX-hedged foreign debt. … to buy more foreign debt, as it’s already close to the 19% limit in its current mandate; and while good news for US Treasurys this was bad news for local JGBs.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japanese-bond-crash-margin-call-sends-shockwaves-around-globe

Dow, S&P 500 on track for worst start to a quarter since 2008 financial crisis as recession fears accelerate
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-sp-500-on-track-for-worst-start-to-a-quarter-since-2008-financial-crisis-as-recession-fears-accelerate-2019-10-02?mod=mw_theo_homepage

NY Fed Announces Extension Of Overnight Repos Until Nov 4, Will Offer 8 More Term Repos
NY FED ANNOUNCES EIGHT TERM REPO OPS WITH VARIOUS TERMS, SIZES

POWELL: U.S. ECONOMY FACES RISKS BUT OVERALL IS IN GOOD PLACE
NY FED OVERNIGHT REPO OPS. TO HAVE LIMIT OF AT LEAST $75B

Only the banksters understand themselves, the economy "in good place" but needs daily tens of billion U.S.dollars extra funding ... only in Murica

The Fed is extending its overnight funding operations through January 2020
https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1182672486749671425

China Just Injected The Most Liquidity Since January... And It's Not Enough
It’s said to be hard to borrow money in the market this morning mainly due to the coming tax submission which was postponed to this Thursday
flooding the local financial system with a net 250 billion in reverse repos (for those confused, a reverse repo in China is the equivalent of a repo in the US, and vice versa). One day later, on Wednesday, the PBOC injected another 200 billion in net liquidity

China's credit impulse is set for another sharp drop...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-just-injected-most-2-day-liquidity-january-and-its-not-enough

The Fed's Liquidity Response Is Too Little Too Late - But That Was Always The Plan...

Calling Fed repo actions “Not-QE” is a funny means pointing out that the Fed is not being straightforward about its intentions, but when comparing current repo loans and asset purchases to an event like TARP back in 2008, which by itself injected over $16 trillion in liquidity into the financial system (no audit of the other QE programs has yet been undertaken), the current stimulus is nothing but a drop in the ocean.

They clearly have no intention of kicking the can any longer. The Fed WANTED a crash, and now they have it. The reason why is perfectly logical: The central bank, under the control of globalists at the BIS, needs economic chaos to provide cover for what they call the “global economic reset”. Essentially, it is the controlled demolition of the old world order to make way for their “new world order”.

http://www.alt-market.com/index.php/articles/3981-the-feds-liquidity-response-is-too-little-too-late-but-that-was-always-the-plan

BofA: "Dovish ECB & Fed (added $107bn in liquidity today) set to boost CB balance sheets by $600Bn in 2020 and remain chief bullish support for risk assets."7.12.19
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1203097161526845440

More and more monopoly money has been printed by the central banksters in billion dollars daily, there is no exit strategy on their part.

As of midnight tomorrow the WTO effectively ceases to function unless the US allows appointments of new appellate judges to the final appeals forum, the Appellate Body, after the terms of two of the last three sitting judges expire – at which point, ironically, only China’s representative will remain.9
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/midnight-tomorrow-wto-effectively-ceases-function

Zoltan from Credit Suisse TL/DR: JPM launched NOT QE in Sept. JPM is about to launch QE4 (Bills + Coupons) in the next few days. And the Fed will need a market "firesale" excuse to trigger QE4
Fed May Need Swap Lines, QE4 to Ease Funding Woes: Credit Suisse

Morgan Stanley: Central Banks Are Injecting $100 Billion Per Month To Crush Vol And Spike Markets

Zerohedge

the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) reported that the overnight repo problems might stem from the reluctance of the four largest U.S. banks to lend to some of the largest hedge funds. The four banks are being forced to fund a massive surge in U.S. Treasury issuance and therefore reallocated funding from the hedge funds to the U.S. Treasury. …

The Fed and the banks grossly underestimated how much of the increased U.S. Treasury debt issuance they would have to buy. In just the last quarter, the Treasury issued nearly $1 trillion dollars of debt. At the same time, foreign sponsorship of U.S. Treasuries has been declining

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/when-it-becomes-serious-you-have-to-lie-update-on-the-repo-fiasco/

Mohamed El-Erian: the U.S.-China deal will be a short-term truce since trade is no longer just about economics but also about national security. … Because the trade dispute has lasted for so long, it has expanded to include things beyond economics.

we have entered a period of deglobalization and that’s concerning because neither the global economy nor the financial markets are wired for deglobalization. So I’m not as optimistic as others that the mini-deal between China and the U.S. will lead to a long-term resolution. We have weaponized the economic tools, and the minute you do that, it’s very hard to step back.

https://themarket.ch/interview/my-main-worry-about-the-global-prospect-is-europe-ld.1368

Novak: We have the ability to finish construction of Nord Stream 2 in course of several months
Availability of certain facilities gives hope Nord Stream 2 to be built in foreseeable future - Peskov
Interfax

IMF chief warns global economy may well slide into another Great Depression
https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/status/1218495751485042689

Well that escalated quickly, compare the new IMF director to the quoting of her predecessor in the title

#BREAKING Deutsche Bank plans to raise up to € 20 billion in debt pic.twitter.com/PzgGlYGA3u

— Breaking News % (@AlertChannel) February 3, 2020

In case you missed it: US Yield Curve, measured by 3mth/10y spread, is back in inversion. Yield Curve tends to be a good recession predictor. 3mth/10y yield spread hasn’t sent a false signal for more than 50yrs, BBG’s Authers says. pic.twitter.com/gxSXxn7OO1

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) February 3, 2020

#BREAKING Deutsche Bank plans to raise up to € 20 billion in debt pic.twitter.com/PzgGlYGA3u

— Breaking News % (@AlertChannel) February 3, 2020

In case you missed it: US Yield Curve, measured by 3mth/10y spread, is back in inversion. Yield Curve tends to be a good recession predictor. 3mth/10y yield spread hasn’t sent a false signal for more than 50yrs, BBG’s Authers says. pic.twitter.com/gxSXxn7OO1

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) February 3, 2020

Baltic dry index now down more than 83% from it 2019 peak! pic.twitter.com/WkS44vImy5

— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) February 10, 2020

"By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens...while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some." - Keyneshttps://t.co/4pDHbkJpk6 https://t.co/sNrXs2FalT

— Rudy Havenstein, Risk Parody. (@RudyHavenstein) February 10, 2020